Syllabus for the Course, Evaluation of Church Growth

I.         Description

Measuring and evaluating the different aspects of the life of the Church is to leaders what taking the temperature of a patient is to a doctor: an indication of good or bad health. Knowing, not guessing or guessing, what truly happens in Church, in each district, in the cities, in the villages, among people of all ages, among preachers ..., this is what needs to be done to edify the Church and to lead it into the victorious life that God wants for each congregation.

II.      Definition

Statistics are the "science which deals with the collection, tabulation, and systematic classification of quantitative data; it is notably a preparatory step before implementation.”

III.   Goal

In this course, the Church is compared to a living organism which must grow. Its health must be checked just like that of a person. We must constantly seek to remedy the situation of our churches. The student will learn to evaluate the condition of Church at the local, district, and denominational levels. Then he will learn to show the results to local church leaders, superintendents, and  the denominational president.

IV.   Objectives:

1.      To note the vital signs which are important for analysis and evaluation of the Church.

2.      To interpret the vital signs which permit an analysis of the condition of the Church.

3.      To diagnose the needs of local churches, districts, and denominations.

4.      To become familiar with different types of graphs showing our analysis and  evaluation.

5.      To find and propose the best treatment for the local churches, districts, and denominations which have health problems.

V.      Course Outline

1.      Program and Assignments

11. The Diagnostic Sheet

2.      Statistics and the Bible

12. Prescribed Treatments

3.      Statistical Analysis of the Church

13. Different Graphs

4.      Some Sources of Statistics

14. Some Church Concerns

5.      Elements to Measure and Evaluate

15. Special Needs: the Villages

6.      The Basis of Comparison

16. The Planning of Projects

7.      Annual Report

17. The Preparation of your Presentation

8.      Analysis of the Annual Report

18. Statistics, Church, and Missions

9.      The Church Profile

19. Missions

10. The Needs of the Church

20. Final Exam

VI.   Assignments

A.       Do the homework exercises and take a final exam.

B.       Make a local church or denominational profile, using statistics, graphs, diagnosis, and prescribed treatment to heal the Church.

VII.Readings

A.       Braun, Willys K.  Evaluating and Planning Church Growth in the Third World. Kinshasa, Zaïre: International Center of Evangelism, 1989.

B.       Gerber, Vergil, Evangelism and Church Growth. C.P.E., Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 1973.

Statistics and the Bible

I.         Genesis 1:1 - 2:3

A.       What do statistics reveal about the Creation in this passage?

B.       What is the goal of the passage? How can statistics help us to understand the goal? How many times is the name of God used?

II.      Numbers 1-3, 26

A.       What statistics do we find here? How many men crossed the desert?

B.       What were the criteria to be considered a member of God’s people?

C.       Why are these statistics mentioned? (Look especially at chs. 1-3 and ch 26)

D.       What are the differences between the first census and the second?

III.   Nehemiah 6, 7, 11

A.       How many days did it take to complete the Jerusalem Wall?                                Neh. 6:15

B.       What is the importance of statistics in this book?                                                  Neh. 7, 11

C.       Why did Nehemiah keep statistics? Is it useful to know these details today?

IV.   Matthew 25:14-30

A.       What statistics are given in the Parable of the Talents?

1.        Servants? Talents? Multiplication? Evaluation?

2.        What do these figures mean? What are the lessons for us?

V.      Luke 14:28-33

A.       What is the  importance of evaluation in the parable of the tower and the king?

B.       What is the value of evaluation before implementation of a project?

C.       What are the great spiritual truths in these two parables?

VI.   Evaluation of Jesus’ work? Success or failure?

A.       How many disciples did Jesus choose for ministerial training?

B.       How many disciples followed Jesus while He was alive?                                  1 Cor 15:16

C.       How much did the Church grow after Pentecost?                                  Acts 1:15, 2:41; 4:4

D.       How many disciples does Jesus have today?

1.        In the world?

2.        In your country?

3.        In your area?

4.        In your denomination?

5.        In your local church?

Statistical Analysis of the Church (pp 3-7)

I.         Reasons for statistics

A.       A means of measuring the health of the Church

B.       A means  of pinpointing growth and decline of the Church

C.       A means of determining the necessary treatment for a sick church

1.        What does a doctor do when a sick person comes in for care?

a)        He takes his temperature, blood pressure, and pulse

b)        He measures his height and weight

c)        Why does he want these statistics?

D.       A means of helping other Church leaders to make valid decisions

II.      The Statistician’s Role

A.       Do research in gathering the necessary statistical data

B.       Help the head of the department of evangelism and the denominational president to analyze and understand their annual reports

C.       Overcome certain problems in the local church

1.        Gather significant and pertinent statistics

2.        Interpret the statistics honestly

3.        Explain the statistics for others

4.        Propose a treatment for the local churches

III.   Advice to the statistician in his role

A.       Do your own research to find significant and pertinent statistics.

B.       Choose statistics which are appropriate and matter in a given situation.

C.       Interpret those statistics to specify the state   of the church.

D.       Do not misuse statistics to draw false conclusions which are deceiving.

IV.   Examples and exercises

A.       A lay preacher has 17 members attending worship services.  Last year, there were 19 reported, but 3 left for the city, 2 attend a school in another village, 1 is in the hospital, 1 passed away, and 12 of last year’s members are still in the village. What does he report? Church Growth or decline?

B.       What is the average number of those attending worship services in this church?

1st Sunday

2nd Sunday

3rd Sunday

4th Sunday

105

152

83

218

C.       What is the average offering per attendant if 150 give a total of $23.00?

V.      Signs of the life of the Church                                                                  pp 6-7

·        Worship Participants

·        Evangelized Members

·        Sunday School Participants

·        Members Preparing for the Ministry

·        Bible Study Participants

·        Baptisms

·        Prayer Meeting Participants

·        Births

·        Members

·        Deaths

·        Transfer Members

·        Offerings

Some Sources of Statistics 1 (pp 8-14)

I.         The Annual Report of the Denomination

A.       It is the best source of information on the past and present situation of your denomination for determining growth and decline.

B.       Find the Church reports of the last 30 years. Where are they?

C.       Make photocopies for your records.

D.       Study the statistics. Is there anything missing?

E.       Ask questions; they contribute to necessary changes in the annual report.

II.      The Government Census

A.       It is the best source of information on the population (country, region, area, district, village, city, neighborhood, etc.)

1.        It gives useful information: the number of villages in a district, for example.

2.        It helps you to know the number of unreached villages.

B.       What is the population growth of ZAIRE?

1988  

36,000,000

1978  

29,259,000

Numeric Growth  for a 10-yr Period

 

Decadal Growth Rate                                DGR =

___________ X  100 =       %

Annual Growth Rate                                  AGR =

___________ (%) =      %

C.       What is the value of population statistics?

·           Here is the population according to the ages of men and women (ZAIRE)

1975

1985

 

Age

Men

%

Women

%

Tot %

Men

%

Women

%

Tot %

0-4

2,148,326

9.51

2,048,016

9.26

18.74

3,009,222

9.71

2,900,915

9.37

19.08

5-9

1,687,068

7.42

1,663,340

7.37

14.79

2,364,650

7.63

2,310,542

7.46

15.09

10-14

1,393,860

6.17

1,400,389

6.20

12.37

1,939,657

6.26

1,909,388

6.16

12.42

15-19

1,170,295

5.18

1,192,262

5.28

10.46

1,614,079

5.21

1,611,230

5.20

10.41

20-24

973,288

4.31

1,010,877

4.48

8.79

1,340,441

4.33

1,363,717

4.40

8.73

25-29

806,630

3.57

850,346

3.77

7.34

1,112,657

3.59

1,143,586

3.69

7.28

30-39

1,201,789

5.32

1,301,355

5.76

11.08

1,654,755

5.34

1,734,991

5.60

10.94

40-49

799,650

3.54

891,498

3.95

7.49

1,089,068

3.52

1,192,149

3.85

7.37

50-59

490,945

2.18

589,359

2.61

4.79

667,539

2.16

774,536

2.50

4.66

60-69

267,397

1.19

352,841

1.56

2.75

363,106

1.17

462,081

1.49

2.66

70+

126,043

0.57

190,656

0.83

1.40

171,578

0.55

251,515

0.81

1.36

total

11,055,291

48.96

11,526,939

51.04

100.00

15,326,732

49.47

15,654,650

50.53

100.00

 

1.        What does this comparison between the two years show you? 

2.        If men from 26 to 85 make up 15% of the population, but only 8% of men attend Sunday worship service, we need to work harder to win more men to Christ. What must be done?

Some Sources of Statistics 2 (pp 8-14)

D.       Compare the urban and rural populations.

ZAIRE

1975

1985

1995

City (2.000 +)

30%

40%

50%

Village

70%

60%

50%

Rural Population

16,105,091

18,743,673

22,000,000+

E.       How man people today live in unchurched villages?

1.        Out of 70.000 villages, there are more than 35.000 unchurched villages.

2.        Probably more that 20.000.000 people live in unchurched villages (1990).

3.        Half of the Zairian population cannot go to a church near their homes.

III.   Maps

A.       A good source to understand the geographical situation of the unreached.

B.       A means of determining what affects the life of the unreached

1.        The borders of districts, etc.

2.        Roads, the distances an evangelist must travel

3.        Rivers and streams

4.         Cities and villages

5.        Plateaux, mountains, deserts ....

C.       A tool to locate unchurched villages

D.       An instrument to analyze the need and prescribe a treatment for the Church

IV.   A linguistic and tribal map

A.       A linguistic and tribal map indicates the limits of each tribe within the territory of the denomination.

B.       It is important to know the various tribes and their receptivity to the Gospel.

1.        Receptive tribes respond to the Gospel and benefit from advantages brought in by missions: schools, hospitals, dispensaries, and employment. 

2.        Others who are resistant have often been poorly evangelized.

3.        Example: The Bateke. Resistant to the Gospel for more than a century. Now they are open to the Gospel and many have become Christian. The denominational leaders have sent in evangelistic teams to witness to them after having determined their needs. Hundreds of young Bateke have been trained in Portable Schools. They are now the Church leaders in their Bateke villages. The key was to focus on the needs of the tribe.

C.       What ethnic groups make up your local church? If you focus on a certain tribe, could you send evangelists from that tribe to reach others in the same ethnic group, still living in their unreached villages?

D.       Study the migration of various tribes. How can you use members of the targeted tribe to reach those living outside your denominational zone?

E.       Linguistic maps prepared by the government are available. The statistician should study those maps to plan how to reach unreached tribes.

Some Sources of Statistics 3 (pp 8-14)

V.      Publications

A.       Barrett, David: World Christian Encyclopedia.  This book is very expensive ($90). It gives a detailed profile of every country in the world. There are statistics for many denominations. It is a very important reference book to help understand the growth of many denominations in your country. 

B.       Johnstone, Patrick: Operation World. This book gives a brief statistical profile of all the countries in the world, with a break-down of the various ethnic groups and religions in the country. There are graphs and commentaries of the spiritual situation in that country. It is a very affordable reference book.

C.       Doctoral theses and other documents of written research by students of your country or by foreigners who have worked in your country. You can find, for example, your denomination history and writings by Church associations.

D.       Publications from overseas missions. You can find, for example, the history of the Pentecostal Church. Why have they grown so fast? Look at their structure, the emphasis on lay training, their evangelism, their pastoral training which is very practical .....

E.       Financial reports

1.        Comparison between the gifts of all members of a district and those of the entire denomination.

2.        The problem of inflation of the national currency

1987

Z1000 = $ 5.81

1988

Z1000 = $ 3.12

1992

Z1000 = $ .0009

3.        To calculate the value of the zaïre, we must know the value of the zaïre in relation to a stable currency, like the dollar or the Belgian franc, for example:

a)        1980 rate: 7Z = $ 1   total gifts  = 420Z  How many dollars?  ($ 60)

b)        120 members. How much per member?   ($ .50)

c)        1992 rate: 1,100,000Z = $ 1     ______________________ = $ 60?

d)        150 members. How much per member? ___________________

F.        Computer software

1.        the computer offers an indispensable work tool for those who want the most recent information on a people or a country.

2.        There are many types of computer software available like “World Atlas” et “P.C. Globe” which offers world maps on diskette. The Internet is also a valuable source of information on evangelism and missions.

3.        It is possible to target a country, even a city, and find the statistics you need.

4.        This software normally offers statistics which are public domain, that is, figures which their governments have offered to the public.


Elements to Measure and Evaluate 1 (pp 15-20)

Introduction

1.        We must relate the important components to each other when measuring the special needs of each district in the denomination so that we have a relevant data base before planning our evangelism projects.

2.        We must also do comparative studies.

·           The comparison of this year’s report with that of last year, on national and district levels.

·           The comparison of Church growth in the last 30 years on national and district levels. It provides us with a base of long-term growth to evaluate is our goals are realistic or not. What is a good rate of growth? How do we determine it? We must do comparative studies for our areas.

·           The comparison of your denomination growth rate with that of others. It will open the eyes of your denomination because they will see what are doing in the same country, in the same culture, with the same obstacles.  What type of growth are the other denominations experiencing? If it is accelerated, why?

3.        Here is a list of ten important elements we can measure to determine quantitative and qualitative growth of our members.

I.         Baptisms

A.       Baptisms from the last 30 years. Compare this to the number of members.

B.       Divide them into two categories: children (0-19) and adults (20+).

1.        Children dedicated, baptized, and raised in the church are often given superficial training during their youth.

2.        Adults converted because of lay witnessing, the pastor’s sermons, or evangelistic crusades help to determine the effectiveness of evangelistic programs in the church.

II.      Transfers into your church (members of other churches who join yours)

A.       This statistic reflects the attitude of others toward your denomination. Respect?  Hostility?  Indifference?  Distrust?  Enthusiasm?  Loyalty?  Interest?   The attitude of members influences those outside the denomination.

B.       Jesus asked: “Who do people say I am?"  For your church, the question must also be asked: "Who do people say we are, the Baptists, Presbyterians, Methodists, Mennonites, Anglicans, etc. .... What is the image your denomination has in the community?

III.   Restored backsliders (reconciled, re-established)

A.       This statistics reflects the denomination’s image, especially in the cities where backsliders can choose another church.

B.       A backslider under discipline has three options:

1.        The way of contrition: confession, repentance, restitution, reconciliation

2.        The way of the world: abandon the church to live in sin  

3.        The way of rebellion: departure for another church

C.       If the number of excommunications is more than that of restored backsliders, what does that means?

Elements to Measure and Evaluate 2 (pp 15-20)

IV.   Transfers from your church (members who leave your church)

A.       This statistic reflects the denomination’s image in relationship to the spiritual, geographical, physical, economic, political, and social conditions of the country.

B.       We must look at two levels: the denomination and the local church. Did the transferred member leave the denomination or only the local church?

C.       Look for the cause (diagnose the sickness)

1.        The local situation (dying village; moving from one place to another for studies, for employment, or a better life; lack of work, lack of a comfortable lifestyle, etc.)

2.        The spiritual situation (conflict, corruption, bad pastor, indifference, lack of spiritual life, lack of vision, lack of good programs,  etc.)

3.        What can we do to stop the transfer of our members?

V.      The death of members (deceased)

A.       This statistic of the members of your church. A well established and traditional church often has more deaths than a young church.

B.       Compare the number of deceased in your denomination’s churches. Compare the number of deaths in your denomination with those in another denomination.

C.       Do an evaluation. What is the best situation? A well-established and traditional church? Or a church which is focusing on youth and distrusting of tradition? What is the average age desired? How can the current situation be improved?

VI.   Excommunications (under discipline)

A.       This statistic can also reflect the age of the denomination.

B.       Why? Adultery in a young church, little knowledge, and a poor understanding of the holy life requiring spiritual revival.

VII.Tithes and offerings

A.       The total offerings of the denomination reflect the economy of the nation, but also the feeling of the members toward the church.

1.        Example no 1: During one year, the members of a district gave generously and with a spirit of sacrifice (2 Corinthians 8:2) because they were enthusiastic with the power and the love of God manifested in their church. They gave to express their joy and their gratitude toward God.

2.        Example no 2: In another district where the people normally gave a lot, they gave much less that year. Why?  Because of conflicts between pastors and laypeople from various local churches. They expressed their anger by giving less offering.

B.       Analyze the figures and compare the gifts of the various districts and churches. These figures reflect the health or sickness of the local church, the district, the area, the denomination ....

C.       Compare your gifts to those of other denominations. Note the socio-economic level of your denomination and that of others in your area. Who gives the most: the poorer, middle, or upper classes?  How can they be evaluated (By the total sum given or a percentage of their income?) Notice what Jesus taught in the Gospel of Luke 21:1-4. 


Elements to Measure and Evaluate 3 (pp 15-20)

VIII.Participants in Sunday worship service

A.       This statistic reflects what members think of their denomination, area, district, local church, even their family.

B.       Each person votes for or against church by his or her attendance.

C.       There are exceptional cases: sick people, trips, visits, accidents ....

D.       Compare attendance of your local churches to that of the district and the area.

E.       Compare the current attendance with that of past years.

F.        Compare the current attendance with that of other denominations.

IX.   Students preparing for full-time ministry

A.       This statistic reflects the attitude of the youth toward the church, the pastor, and the ministry. Ask the youth: “What do you think of a pastor’s ministry and life?"  They will probably give a positive answer, but the true answer is reflected by the number of youth enrolled in Bible schools and seminaries. 

B.       Why do young people want to go to theological schools?

1.        A large number of young candidates indicate that                                                           

2.        A small number of young candidates indicate that                                                          

C.       The example of the catholic church for the last few years:  there is a significant decline in the number of candidates preparing for the ministry. This reflects a ____________________________________ toward the church.

D.       From which churches (districts, areas) do the pastors comes? From which families? At what age did they become Christians? Look at the figures from the last 30 years. What do they show?

X.      Participants in other church activities

A.       Participants in each church activity reflect the spiritual condition of the church and its ability to respond to the area needs:  women’s meetings, choir rehearsals, men’s meetings, youth activities, Bible studies, Sunday School ....

B.       Is Sunday School for members of all ages or only for children?

Conclusion

1.        These ten subjects, after complete analysis, will give a good idea of the strengths and weaknesses of a district.

2.        We can evaluate by using qualifying adjectives: excellent, good, average, bad .... 

3.        Study these evaluations well before planning projects for the local church, the district, and the region.

The Annual Report 1986 (pp 21-23)

 

district

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U

V

W

85

86

1.          

Organized Churches

17

15

17

17

13

91

14

15

14

40

18

23

11

16

14

29

15

22

16

2

7

36

168

394

630

2.          

Established Churches 86

5

 

3

 

1

13

 

 

4

2

1

8

 

4

 

 

3

6

 

 

 

8

9

144

67

3.          

Closed Churches 86

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

3

3

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

4.          

Unorganized Churches

72

62

29

140

68

303

46

49

63

72

86

57

73

45

26

31

58

68

50

30

15

211

27

1612

1681

5.          

Unorganized Churches 86

7

1

7

 

1

33

 

 

6

7

21

11

5

5

 

 

2

18

4

 

1

26

19

 

174

6.          

Unorganized Closed 86

2

 

1

 

 

8

 

 

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

19

7.          

Members in 85

7109

898

1041

1065

1201

6549

1092

2087

2139

664

1332

2120

1117

1824

2743

1138

897

2530

1644

 

1181

3755

5726

49852

 

8.          

Baptized in 86

427

55

163

86

138

966

 

162

141

80

173

69

126

227

176

63

91

261

52

 

100

964

313

4312

4833

9.          

Transfers into the Church

60

32

13

6

13

223

 

23

18

12

20

18

26

37

 

5

14

47

15

 

16

54

79

559

731

10.        

Reintegrated into Church

118

28

34

30

41

258

 

47

38

55

54

28

63

85

 

32

41

105

46

 

34

125

218

 

1480

11.        

Transfers Out Church

204

14

11

10

24

90

 

9

28

6

17

23

21

11

 

9

14

15

10

 

28

151

25

 

720

12.        

Deceased

 

41

11

5

30

29

53

 

15

11

20

13

31

8

9

 

26

41

10

33

 

58

31

54

1501

529

13.        

Excommuni-cations

102

5

57

17

80

154

 

55

46

19

50

39

26

32

 

33

26

66

5

 

45

115

121

 

1093

14.        

Members in 86

7364

983

1178

1130

1260

7694

1168

2190

2259

766

1499

2142

1537

2121

2525

1170

962

2902

1709

1402

1200

3931

6166

 

55258

15.        

Evangelized

 

729

2280

223

118

279

5191

 

1211

224

141

806

787

590

1226

 

370

680

640

116

 

394

475

505

12046

16985

16.        

Sunday Schools

28

17

32

23

22

55

22

23

28

46

29

23

10

24

28

13

21

52

38

2

16

72

43

605

667

17.        

Participants in SS

1243

484

584

284

3103

865

624

577

577

657

585

982

237

250

867

341

1090

402

800

350

317

1765

1472

20982

18456

18.        

Mini Bible Courses

 

1

1

1

1

1

 

1

1

1

1

1

 

1

1

1

1

1

1

 

 

2

1

19

19

19.        

Participants Mini-Courses

 

7

8

3

96

25

 

4

12

12

6

 

 

6

 

5

5

5

 

 

 

26

14

 

234

20.        

Pastors

 

9

5

4

5

10

14

6

5

4

5

6

6

5

5

6

3

4

6

4

2

4

16

8

131

142

21.        

Laity in the Ministry

335

59

65

61

91

915

87

59

69

 

167

67

121

105

53

35

65

61

72

45

36

416

156

3034

3140

22.        

Laymen

 

174

42

51

37

53

521

57

37

45

 

93

31

59

35

35

32

39

57

47

30

22

285

109

1903

1891

23.        

Lay Women

140

5

10

21

29

375

30

7

25

 

55

26

56

70

6

3

22

 

24

15

7

110

18

 

1054

24.        

Evangelists

 

20

12

3

3

7

7

 

15

9

 

18

10

6

 

12

 

6

4

1

 

7

19

24

 

183

25.        

Missionaries Sent Out

1

 

1

 

2

12

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

37

19

 

 

district

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U

V

W

 

 

1.          

Organized Churches

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.          

Established Churches 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.          

Closed Churches 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.          

Unorganized Churches

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.          

Unorganized Churches 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.          

Unorganized closed chur 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.          

Members in 85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.          

Baptized in 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.          

Transfers into the Church

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.        

Reintegrated into Church

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11.        

Transfers Out Church

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.        

Deceased

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13.        

Excommuni-cations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.        

Members in 86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15.        

Evangelized

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16.        

Sunday Schools

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

17.        

Participants in SS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18.        

Mini Bible Courses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.        

Participants Mini-Courses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20.        

Pastors

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.        

Laity in the Ministry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22.        

Laymen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23.        

Lay Women

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24.        

Evangelists

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25.        

Missionaries Sent Out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Evaluating Statistics by Comparison (pp 21-23)

I.         Some observations on the annual report for 1986

A.       The report is mostly complete.

B.       The names of the districts have been replaced by letters.

C.       There are mistakes in the data reporting.

D.       There are gaps in the data reporting.

E.       In spite of the mistakes, the report is very useful.

F.        There are many possibilities of comparison here.

II.      The comparison and evaluation of statistics

A.       OPTION #1: Make a table covering many years, study the figures given in the report, compare those figures, and make an evaluation. 

1.        Example: study these figures on the members of this denomination

1962

1972

1982

1992

100.000

110.000

125.000

150.000  

2.        Compare the figures for the four years reported.

3.        What are your observations? What is your evaluation of its growth?

4.        How does this growth compare with that of your denomination?

B.       OPTION #2: Compare the differences, gains, and losses according to the table.

1.        Example: the members

a)        1985   ______

b)        1986   ______     gain or loss: ________

2.        Example: organized churches

a)        1985   ______

b)        1986   ______     gain or loss: ________

3.        Example: baptisms

a)        1985   ______

b)        1986   ______     gain or loss: _______

4.        Example: deceased

a)        1985   ______

b)        1986   ______     gain or loss: _______

C.       OPTION # 3  Compare the percentages of gain.

1.        Example: The rate of growth of members from different denominations.

 

A

B

C

D

E

1988

68.241

11.000

101.000

205.000

327.000

1987

64.836

10.000

100.000

200.000

310.000

gain (a)

______

______

_______

_______

_______

% (b)

______

______

_______

_______

_______

a)        Formula:  1988 - 1987 = numeric gain

b)        Formula:  numeric gain X 100 / 1987 statistic = %

c)        Which denomination has shown the greatest gain? _________

D.       What is the best method for evaluating these statistics?

Analysis of the Annual Report 1 (pp 24-36)

I.         Members (categories 7 and 14 on the table)

A.       What figure (1 to 25) represents the 1985 members?                                                           

B.       How is the total calculated for # 14?  (What is done with # 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13?)

                                                                                                                                                       

C.       How are the totals for 1985 and 1986 membership calculated?                                           

                                                                                                                                                                      

D.       How is the 1986 membership gain calculated?                                                                      

E.       What is the annual growth rate (AGR)?______ How is it found?                                          

F.        Is the growth rate good? How can it be evaluated?

1.                                                                                                                                                       

2.                                                                                                                                                       

G.       Calculate and compare the AGR of each district with that of the denomination.

 

A

B

C

D

1986

 

 

 

 

1985

 

 

 

 

gain

 

 

 

 

%

 

 

 

 

H.       What is the ranking of the districts in relationship to the AGR of the denomination?

District _____

_____%

District _____

_____%

The denominational AGR

_____%           

District _____

_____%

District _____

_____%

I.           What is the difference between the highest rate and the lowest?                                         

J.         Divide the difference by five, and distribute the percentages according to their value.

K.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to the following table.

14%  

Excellent

12%  

Good

10%  

Average

08%  

Mediocre

06%  

Bad

L.        How are the four districts evaluated?

District

Evaluation

C

 

B

 

D

 

A

 

M.      This is the beginning of a membership profile for each district.  This should be done for the other categories so that a complete profile is available to help in the planning  of the growth of each district.

Analysis of the Annual Report 2 (pp 24 - 36)

II.      Baptized (category 8 on the table)

III.   Transfers into our church (category 9 on the table)

IV.   Transfers from our church (category 11 on the table)

V.      Excommunications (category 13 on the table)

A.       Excommunications / members =  ______ X 100 = ___ %?

B.       The percentage of excommunications by district.

District

Excommunications

/ Members

quotient x 100

= %

A

 

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

 

Denomination

 

 

 

 

C.       Rank the districts, each according  to its percentage

District ____

_____%

Average  (denomination)   

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

D.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to the following table.

0%  

Excellent

1%  

Good

2%  

Average

3%  

Poor

4%  

Bad

E.       Summarize what you have learned from these two categories.

District

% Members

Evaluation

% Excommunications

Evaluation

A

 

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

 

F.        What conclusions can you draw from these evaluations?

District

Evaluation

A

 

B

 

C

 

D

 

 

Analysis of the Annual Report 3 (pp 24 - 36)

VI.   Deceased (category 12 on the table)

A.       Notice the big difference between the deceased in 1985 ________  and those in 1986_______. Why is there this difference?                                                                                                     

B.       In using the figure 529 (1986) out of 49.852 (1985) members, what is the denominational rate of loss due to death? ______%

C.       What is the percentage of loss in each of the 4 districts

District

Deceased

Members

%  of loss

Evaluation

A

 

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

 

D.       Rank the districts, each according its percentage.

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

Average (denomination)   

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

E.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to the following table.

0,2 %  

Excellent

0,6 %  

Good

1,0 %  

Average

1,5 %  

Poor

2,0 %  

Bad

F.        Evaluation: What do these figures mean?

1.        District C is a ________ church because it has _____________ deaths.

2.        District D is a ___________ church because it has _____________ deaths.

3.        District D ________ a membership ______ times the rate of district _______.

4.        District D has ___________ excommunications because the elderly do not have a many ________________ _________________.

5.        District D has not experienced _______________ growth in its membership because it does not attract youth or ________________ people and because it has _________________ deaths.

VII.Reintegrated (restored excommunications or backsliders) (category 10)

Reintegrated en 1986

Excommunications in 1986

Difference

% gain

 

 

 

 

A.       Speculate on what happened in 1984-85.  (We cannot know by the 1985 report)

B.       There were probably _____________ excommunications.

C.       Note the figures for the first four districts.  

District

Reintegrated in 1986

Members in 1985

%  of the membership

A

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

Analysis of the Annual Report 4 (pp 24 - 36)

D.       Arrange the districts, each one according to its percentage.

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

Average (denomination)    

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

E.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to this scale.

05 %  

Excellent

04 %  

Good

03 %  

Average

02 %  

Poor

01 %  

Bad

F.        Evaluation:  Add it to the profile

1.        District A is                                                                                                                           .

2.        District B is                                                                                                                           .

3.        District C is                                                                                                                           

4.        District D is                                                                                                                           

VIII.Churches (categories 1 to 6 on the table)

A.       Organized churches (category 1 on the table)

1.        There are interesting figures on organized churches.

Organized churches 86

Organized churches 85

Difference / Organized churches 85 = quotient

Quotient x 100 = % gain or loss

 

 

 

 

2.        But if we check the data, we see that the statistician made an error.

Organized churches in 85

Organized churches established in 86

Organized churches closed in 86

Total of organized churches in 86

% of gain or loss

 

 

 

 

 

3.        There is a discrepancy between the total of organized churches in the report (section A) and the calculated number in section B. We don’t have all the data.

B.       Non organized churches (category 4 of the table)

1.        There is a discrepancy between the report of non-organized churches and the  calculation.

Non-organized churches 86

Non-organized churches 85

Difference / Non-organized churches 85 = quotient

Quotient x 100 = % gain or loss

 

 

 

 

2.        But if we study categories 5 and 6 of the report, we find another result.

Non-organized churches in 85

Non-organized churches established in 86

Non-organized churches closed in 86

Total of non-organized churches in 86

% de gain or loss

 

 

 

 

 

C.       Remarks on the errors in the report

·           We must see the 1985 report to know if the statistician made an error copying 1985 figures. In spite of errors, the report is very important. It is difficult for an imperfect man to produce a perfect report.


Analysis of the Annual Report 5 (pp 24 - 36)

IX.   Pastors (category 20 of the table)

A.       How many members are being served by one pastor?

1.        Divide the total number of members by the number of pastors (M / P = ?).

2.        _______ members (1986)  =  _________ members / _______ pastors

B.       What is the percentage of pastors within the membership? ______

1.        What is the proportion pastor / members in your denomination?

2.        Compare this figure to that of 1956, 1966, 1976.

3.        Compare this figure to that of another denomination.

4.        Compare this figure to that of each district in the annual report.

district

pastors

members

Members per Pastor

A

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

5.        What is the best situation? Many or few members per pastor?

6.        What is the ideal proportion? 100, 400, 750, 1000?  How can it be determined? 

7.        A pastor could say: "The more members per pastor, the better the church."  Why?  (His salary would increase with an increase in offerings. More members means more offerings.)

8.        Another pastor could say: “Fewer members per pastor is better.” Why? (The pastor can train and evaluate his members better when there are less to gather and mobilize.)

X.      Lay leaders (catechists) (category 21 on the table)

district

Pastors

Lay Leaders

lay Leaders per pastor

A

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

·           Observation: Because of a lack of pastors, lay leaders are often the only solution for administering spiritual instruction. 

Practical questions:

1.        What is the best proportion of pastors to members? We know what most pastors would say.

2.        Which proportion responds more and better to the needs of the church?

3.        What proportion contributes better to the maturity and growth of the church?

4.        What is God’s call for the church? To give a big salary to the pastors?

5.        What is the call of God for the pastor? To receive a big salary? Or feed the sheep and help the church to prosper spiritually?

6.        Consider the various effects of the different proportions of pastors to members.

Analysis of the Annual Report 6 (pp 24 - 36)

XI.   Sunday Schools (category 16 of the table)

A.       What is the percentage of gain or loss  for 1986?                                                                %

B.       What was the percentage of gain or loss for each district?

district

Sunday Schools

Participants

% of gain or loss

A

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

C.       What is the average for all districts? ______%

D.       Rank the districts, each one according to its percentage.

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

Average (denomination)   

_____ %

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

E.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to this scale.

55 %  

Excellent

45 %  

Good

35 %  

Average

25 %  

Poor

15 %  

Bad

F.        Evaluation:  Add it to the profile.

1.        District A is a big, populated city. It is and ideal place for a good Sunday School. But the opposite is true. Why?

2.        What is the current situation of Sunday Schools in cities where your denomination is working? In the villages? Are the SS participants in your denomination more numerous than those of District A?

XII.Mini Bible Courses (category 18 of the table)

A.       How do you classify the mini Bible courses according to enrollment?

district

Mini-courses

Enrolled

A

_____

_____

B

_____

_____

C

_____

_____

D

_____

_____

B.       What is the average for all districts? ______

C.       Rank the districts, each according to its percentage.

Average (denomination)   

_____

District ____

_____

District ____

_____

District ____

_____

District ____

_____

Analysis of the Annual Report 7 (pp 24 - 36)

D.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to this scale.

24  

Excellent

18

Good

12

Average

06

Poor

00

Bad

E.       Evaluation:  Add it to the profile.

1.        All four districts are below the average.

2.        District C is close to the average, but it is doing poor work.

3.        District A is bad, without any positive results.

XIII. Churches and unchurched villages (not on the table)

A.       What is the number of unchurched villages in the annual report?

1.        Nothing has been said on the number of villages, so it is impossible to answer.

2.        Nothing has been reported on churches with churches (only line 22 alludes to it)

3.        A report studied elsewhere said that District D had 344 villages. 

4.        How may lay leaders are there is District D? ___________ Is that a good number based on the number of villages?                                                                                                              

B.       How many catechists need to be added to have a catechist in every village in District D? _______

1.        If the statistician looked at the number of catechists in villages for the last 30 years, he would notice a continual decline in the number of unchurched villages.

2.        In the annual report, the total of lay leaders combines those of urban districts and those of rural districts. If we separate the rural districts from the urban, there are 938 urban lay leaders out of 1,891 lay leaders in the report. Therefore, there are ______ rural catechists.

3.        The report is not complete because there is no distinction between a rural catechist and an urban lay leader.  Note that District A has ____ organized churches and ______ lay leaders. That makes ______ lay leaders per church.  If we did not know District A was urban, we would think that it had _____ villages with ____ catechists. In fact, it has _____ churches (line 1) with an average of  ______ lay leaders for each church. We need a report which distinguishes between rural catechists and urban lay leaders.

Analysis of the Annual Report 8 (pp 28 - 41)

XIV. Evangelized (category 15 of the table)

A.       What are the figures per district?

district

Members

Evangelized

% E / M 85

Baptisms

% B / E

Denomination

 

 

 

 

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

B

 

 

 

 

 

C

 

 

 

 

 

D

 

 

 

 

 

B.       Rank the districts according to the percentage of evangelized / members 85.

District ____

_____%

Average  (denomination)   

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

District ____

_____%

C.       Evaluate the performances of the districts according to this scale.

42 %  

Excellent

33 %  

Good

24 %  

Average

15 %  

Poor

06 %  

Bad

D.       Evaluation:  Add it to the profile.

1.        District B does not understand the importance of mobilizing its members for evangelism as District A does.

2.        Three our of four districts are weak.

The Church Profile 1 (pp 37 - 40)

I.         An evaluation chart can now be set up to measure the global performance of each district.

15     Excellent +

12   Good +

09     Average +

06     Poor +

03   Bad +

14     Excellent

11   Good

08     Average

05     Poor

02   Bad

13     Excellent-

10   Good-

07     Average-

04     Poor-

01   Bad-

II.      Profile of District A.

 

Category

% Gain

Average

Evaluation

Points

1.       

Members

 

 

 

 

2.       

Baptized

 

 

 

 

3.       

Transfers received

 

 

 

 

4.       

Reintegrated

 

 

 

 

5.       

Transfers out of Church