Some Sources of Statistics 1 (pp 8-14)

I. The Annual Report of the Denomination

A. It is the best source of information on the past and present situation of your denomination for determining growth and decline.

B. Find the Church reports of the last 30 years. Where are they?

C. Make photocopies for your records.

D. Study the statistics. Is there anything missing?

E. Ask questions; they contribute to necessary changes in the annual report.

II. The Government Census

A. It is the best source of information on the population (country, region, area, district, village, city, neighborhood, etc.)

1. It gives useful information: the number of villages in a district, for example.

2. It helps you to know the number of unreached villages.

B. What is the population growth of ZAIRE?

1988	36,000,000
1978	29,259,000
Numeric Growth for a 10-yr Period
Decadal Growth Rate DGR =	___________ X 100 = %
Annual Growth Rate AGR =	___________ (%) = %

C. What is the value of population statistics?

· Here is the population according to the ages of men and women (ZAIRE)

1975

1985

Age	Men	%	Women	%	Tot %	Men	%	Women	%	Tot %
0-4	2,148,326	9.51	2,048,016	9.26	18.74	3,009,222	9.71	2,900,915	9.37	19.08
5-9	1,687,068	7.42	1,663,340	7.37	14.79	2,364,650	7.63	2,310,542	7.46	15.09
10-14	1,393,860	6.17	1,400,389	6.20	12.37	1,939,657	6.26	1,909,388	6.16	12.42
15-19	1,170,295	5.18	1,192,262	5.28	10.46	1,614,079	5.21	1,611,230	5.20	10.41
20-24	973,288	4.31	1,010,877	4.48	8.79	1,340,441	4.33	1,363,717	4.40	8.73
25-29	806,630	3.57	850,346	3.77	7.34	1,112,657	3.59	1,143,586	3.69	7.28
30-39	1,201,789	5.32	1,301,355	5.76	11.08	1,654,755	5.34	1,734,991	5.60	10.94
40-49	799,650	3.54	891,498	3.95	7.49	1,089,068	3.52	1,192,149	3.85	7.37
50-59	490,945	2.18	589,359	2.61	4.79	667,539	2.16	774,536	2.50	4.66
60-69	267,397	1.19	352,841	1.56	2.75	363,106	1.17	462,081	1.49	2.66
70+	126,043	0.57	190,656	0.83	1.40	171,578	0.55	251,515	0.81	1.36
total	11,055,291	48.96	11,526,939	51.04	100.00	15,326,732	49.47	15,654,650	50.53	100.00

1. What does this comparison between the two years show you?

2. If men from 26 to 85 make up 15% of the population, but only 8% of men attend Sunday worship service, we need to work harder to win more men to Christ. What must be done?

Some Sources of Statistics 2 (pp 8-14)

D. Compare the urban and rural populations.

ZAIRE	1975	1985	1995
City (2.000 +)	30%	40%	50%
Village	70%	60%	50%
Rural Population	16,105,091	18,743,673	22,000,000+

E. How man people today live in unchurched villages?

1. Out of 70.000 villages, there are more than 35.000 unchurched villages.

2. Probably more that 20.000.000 people live in unchurched villages (1990).

3. Half of the Zairian population cannot go to a church near their homes.

III. Maps

A. A good source to understand the geographical situation of the unreached.

B. A means of determining what affects the life of the unreached

1. The borders of districts, etc.

2. Roads, the distances an evangelist must travel

3. Rivers and streams

4. Cities and villages

5. Plateaux, mountains, deserts ....

C. A tool to locate unchurched villages

D. An instrument to analyze the need and prescribe a treatment for the Church

IV. A linguistic and tribal map

A. A linguistic and tribal map indicates the limits of each tribe within the territory of the denomination.

B. It is important to know the various tribes and their receptivity to the Gospel.

1. Receptive tribes respond to the Gospel and benefit from advantages brought in by missions: schools, hospitals, dispensaries, and employment.

2. Others who are resistant have often been poorly evangelized.

3. Example: The Bateke. Resistant to the Gospel for more than a century. Now they are open to the Gospel and many have become Christian. The denominational leaders have sent in evangelistic teams to witness to them after having determined their needs. Hundreds of young Bateke have been trained in Portable Schools. They are now the Church leaders in their Bateke villages. The key was to focus on the needs of the tribe.

C. What ethnic groups make up your local church? If you focus on a certain tribe, could you send evangelists from that tribe to reach others in the same ethnic group, still living in their unreached villages?

D. Study the migration of various tribes. How can you use members of the targeted tribe to reach those living outside your denominational zone?

E. Linguistic maps prepared by the government are available. The statistician should study those maps to plan how to reach unreached tribes.

Some Sources of Statistics 3 (pp 8-14)

V. Publications

A. Barrett, David: World Christian Encyclopedia. This book is very expensive ($90). It gives a detailed profile of every country in the world. There are statistics for many denominations. It is a very important reference book to help understand the growth of many denominations in your country.

B. Johnstone, Patrick: Operation World. This book gives a brief statistical profile of all the countries in the world, with a break-down of the various ethnic groups and religions in the country. There are graphs and commentaries of the spiritual situation in that country. It is a very affordable reference book.

C. Doctoral theses and other documents of written research by students of your country or by foreigners who have worked in your country. You can find, for example, your denomination history and writings by Church associations.

D. Publications from overseas missions. You can find, for example, the history of the Pentecostal Church. Why have they grown so fast? Look at their structure, the emphasis on lay training, their evangelism, their pastoral training which is very practical .....

E. Financial reports

1. Comparison between the gifts of all members of a district and those of the entire denomination.

2. The problem of inflation of the national currency

1987

Z1000 = $ 5.81

1988

Z1000 = $ 3.12

1992

Z1000 = $ .0009

3. To calculate the value of the zaïre, we must know the value of the zaïre in relation to a stable currency, like the dollar or the Belgian franc, for example:

a) 1980 rate: 7Z = $ 1 total gifts = 420Z How many dollars? ($ 60)

b) 120 members. How much per member? ($ .50)

c) 1992 rate: 1,100,000Z = $ 1 ______________________ = $ 60?

d) 150 members. How much per member? ___________________

F. Computer software

1. the computer offers an indispensable work tool for those who want the most recent information on a people or a country.

2. There are many types of computer software available like “World Atlas” et “P.C. Globe” which offers world maps on diskette. The Internet is also a valuable source of information on evangelism and missions.

3. It is possible to target a country, even a city, and find the statistics you need.

4. This software normally offers statistics which are public domain, that is, figures which their governments have offered to the public.

Elements to Measure and Evaluate 1 (pp 15-20)

Introduction

1. We must relate the important components to each other when measuring the special needs of each district in the denomination so that we have a relevant data base before planning our evangelism projects.

2. We must also do comparative studies.

· The comparison of this year’s report with that of last year, on national and district levels.

· The comparison of Church growth in the last 30 years on national and district levels. It provides us with a base of long-term growth to evaluate is our goals are realistic or not. What is a good rate of growth? How do we determine it? We must do comparative studies for our areas.

· The comparison of your denomination growth rate with that of others. It will open the eyes of your denomination because they will see what are doing in the same country, in the same culture, with the same obstacles. What type of growth are the other denominations experiencing? If it is accelerated, why?

3. Here is a list of ten important elements we can measure to determine quantitative and qualitative growth of our members.

I. Baptisms

A. Baptisms from the last 30 years. Compare this to the number of members.

B. Divide them into two categories: children (0-19) and adults (20+).

1. Children dedicated, baptized, and raised in the church are often given superficial training during their youth.

2. Adults converted because of lay witnessing, the pastor’s sermons, or evangelistic crusades help to determine the effectiveness of evangelistic programs in the church.

II. Transfers into your church (members of other churches who join yours)

A. This statistic reflects the attitude of others toward your denomination. Respect? Hostility? Indifference? Distrust? Enthusiasm? Loyalty? Interest? The attitude of members influences those outside the denomination.

B. Jesus asked: “Who do people say I am?" For your church, the question must also be asked: "Who do people say we are, the Baptists, Presbyterians, Methodists, Mennonites, Anglicans, etc. .... What is the image your denomination has in the community?

III. Restored backsliders (reconciled, re-established)

A. This statistics reflects the denomination’s image, especially in the cities where backsliders can choose another church.

B. A backslider under discipline has three options:

1. The way of contrition: confession, repentance, restitution, reconciliation

2. The way of the world: abandon the church to live in sin

3. The way of rebellion: departure for another church

C. If the number of excommunications is more than that of restored backsliders, what does that means?

Elements to Measure and Evaluate 2 (pp 15-20)

IV. Transfers from your church (members who leave your church)

A. This statistic reflects the denomination’s image in relationship to the spiritual, geographical, physical, economic, political, and social conditions of the country.

B. We must look at two levels: the denomination and the local church. Did the transferred member leave the denomination or only the local church?

C. Look for the cause (diagnose the sickness)

1. The local situation (dying village; moving from one place to another for studies, for employment, or a better life; lack of work, lack of a comfortable lifestyle, etc.)

2. The spiritual situation (conflict, corruption, bad pastor, indifference, lack of spiritual life, lack of vision, lack of good programs, etc.)

3. What can we do to stop the transfer of our members?

V. The death of members (deceased)

A. This statistic of the members of your church. A well established and traditional church often has more deaths than a young church.

B. Compare the number of deceased in your denomination’s churches. Compare the number of deaths in your denomination with those in another denomination.

C. Do an evaluation. What is the best situation? A well-established and traditional church? Or a church which is focusing on youth and distrusting of tradition? What is the average age desired? How can the current situation be improved?

VI. Excommunications (under discipline)

A. This statistic can also reflect the age of the denomination.

B. Why? Adultery in a young church, little knowledge, and a poor understanding of the holy life requiring spiritual revival.

VII.Tithes and offerings

A. The total offerings of the denomination reflect the economy of the nation, but also the feeling of the members toward the church.

1. Example n^o 1: During one year, the members of a district gave generously and with a spirit of sacrifice (2 Corinthians 8:2) because they were enthusiastic with the power and the love of God manifested in their church. They gave to express their joy and their gratitude toward God.

2. Example n^o 2: In another district where the people normally gave a lot, they gave much less that year. Why? Because of conflicts between pastors and laypeople from various local churches. They expressed their anger by giving less offering.

B. Analyze the figures and compare the gifts of the various districts and churches. These figures reflect the health or sickness of the local church, the district, the area, the denomination ....

C. Compare your gifts to those of other denominations. Note the socio-economic level of your denomination and that of others in your area. Who gives the most: the poorer, middle, or upper classes? How can they be evaluated (By the total sum given or a percentage of their income?) Notice what Jesus taught in the Gospel of Luke 21:1-4.

Elements to Measure and Evaluate 3 (pp 15-20)

VIII.Participants in Sunday worship service

A. This statistic reflects what members think of their denomination, area, district, local church, even their family.

B. Each person votes for or against church by his or her attendance.

C. There are exceptional cases: sick people, trips, visits, accidents ....

D. Compare attendance of your local churches to that of the district and the area.

E. Compare the current attendance with that of past years.

F. Compare the current attendance with that of other denominations.

IX. Students preparing for full-time ministry

A. This statistic reflects the attitude of the youth toward the church, the pastor, and the ministry. Ask the youth: “What do you think of a pastor’s ministry and life?" They will probably give a positive answer, but the true answer is reflected by the number of youth enrolled in Bible schools and seminaries.

B. Why do young people want to go to theological schools?

1. A large number of young candidates indicate that

2. A small number of young candidates indicate that

C. The example of the catholic church for the last few years: there is a significant decline in the number of candidates preparing for the ministry. This reflects a ____________________________________ toward the church.

D. From which churches (districts, areas) do the pastors comes? From which families? At what age did they become Christians? Look at the figures from the last 30 years. What do they show?

X. Participants in other church activities

A. Participants in each church activity reflect the spiritual condition of the church and its ability to respond to the area needs: women’s meetings, choir rehearsals, men’s meetings, youth activities, Bible studies, Sunday School ....

B. Is Sunday School for members of all ages or only for children?

Conclusion

1. These ten subjects, after complete analysis, will give a good idea of the strengths and weaknesses of a district.

2. We can evaluate by using qualifying adjectives: excellent, good, average, bad ....

3. Study these evaluations well before planning projects for the local church, the district, and the region.

The Annual Report 1986 (pp 21-23)

	district	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	85	86
1.	Organized Churches	17	15	17	17	13	91	14	15	14	40	18	23	11	16	14	29	15	22	16	2	7	36	168	394	630
2.	Established Churches 86	5		3		1	13			4	2	1	8		4			3	6				8	9	144	67
3.	Closed Churches 86	1					1				3	3						2								10
4.	Unorganized Churches	72	62	29	140	68	303	46	49	63	72	86	57	73	45	26	31	58	68	50	30	15	211	27	1612	1681
5.	Unorganized Churches 86	7	1	7		1	33			6	7	21	11	5	5			2	18	4		1	26	19		174
6.	Unorganized Closed 86	2		1			8				6											2				19
7.	Members in 85	7109	898	1041	1065	1201	6549	1092	2087	2139	664	1332	2120	1117	1824	2743	1138	897	2530	1644		1181	3755	5726	49852
8.	Baptized in 86	427	55	163	86	138	966		162	141	80	173	69	126	227	176	63	91	261	52		100	964	313	4312	4833
9.	Transfers into the Church	60	32	13	6	13	223		23	18	12	20	18	26	37		5	14	47	15		16	54	79	559	731
10.	Reintegrated into Church	118	28	34	30	41	258		47	38	55	54	28	63	85		32	41	105	46		34	125	218		1480
11.	Transfers Out Church	204	14	11	10	24	90		9	28	6	17	23	21	11		9	14	15	10		28	151	25		720
12.	Deceased	41	11	5	30	29	53		15	11	20	13	31	8	9		26	41	10	33		58	31	54	1501	529
13.	Excommuni-cations	102	5	57	17	80	154		55	46	19	50	39	26	32		33	26	66	5		45	115	121		1093
14.	Members in 86	7364	983	1178	1130	1260	7694	1168	2190	2259	766	1499	2142	1537	2121	2525	1170	962	2902	1709	1402	1200	3931	6166		55258
15.	Evangelized	729	2280	223	118	279	5191		1211	224	141	806	787	590	1226		370	680	640	116		394	475	505	12046	16985
16.	Sunday Schools	28	17	32	23	22	55	22	23	28	46	29	23	10	24	28	13	21	52	38	2	16	72	43	605	667
17.	Participants in SS	1243	484	584	284	3103	865	624	577	577	657	585	982	237	250	867	341	1090	402	800	350	317	1765	1472	20982	18456
18.	Mini Bible Courses		1	1	1	1	1		1	1	1	1	1		1	1	1	1	1	1			2	1	19	19
19.	Participants Mini-Courses		7	8	3	96	25		4	12	12	6			6		5	5	5				26	14		234
20.	Pastors	9	5	4	5	10	14	6	5	4	5	6	6	5	5	6	3	4	6	4	2	4	16	8	131	142
21.	Laity in the Ministry	335	59	65	61	91	915	87	59	69		167	67	121	105	53	35	65	61	72	45	36	416	156	3034	3140
22.	Laymen	174	42	51	37	53	521	57	37	45		93	31	59	35	35	32	39	57	47	30	22	285	109	1903	1891
23.	Lay Women	140	5	10	21	29	375	30	7	25		55	26	56	70	6	3	22		24	15	7	110	18		1054
24.	Evangelists	20	12	3	3	7	7		15	9		18	10	6		12		6	4	1		7	19	24		183
25.	Missionaries Sent Out	1		1		2	12					1											2		37	19

district

Organized Churches

Established Churches 86

1. Program and Assignments	11. The Diagnostic Sheet
2. Statistics and the Bible	12. Prescribed Treatments
3. Statistical Analysis of the Church	13. Different Graphs
4. Some Sources of Statistics	14. Some Church Concerns
5. Elements to Measure and Evaluate	15. Special Needs: the Villages
6. The Basis of Comparison	16. The Planning of Projects
7. Annual Report	17. The Preparation of your Presentation
8. Analysis of the Annual Report	18. Statistics, Church, and Missions
9. The Church Profile	19. Missions
10. The Needs of the Church	20. Final Exam

1^st Sunday	2^nd Sunday	3^rd Sunday	4^th Sunday
105	152	83	218

· Worship Participants	· Evangelized Members
· Sunday School Participants	· Members Preparing for the Ministry
· Bible Study Participants	· Baptisms
· Prayer Meeting Participants	· Births
· Members	· Deaths
· Transfer Members	· Offerings

I. Description

II. Definition

III. Goal

IV. Objectives:

V. Course Outline

VI. Assignments

A. Do the homework exercises and take a final exam.

B. Make a local church or denominational profile, using statistics, graphs, diagnosis, and prescribed treatment to heal the Church.

VII.Readings

A. Braun, Willys K. Evaluating and Planning Church Growth in the Third World. Kinshasa, Zaïre: International Center of Evangelism, 1989.

B. Gerber, Vergil, Evangelism and Church Growth. C.P.E., Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 1973.

I. Genesis 1:1 - 2:3

A. What do statistics reveal about the Creation in this passage?

B. What is the goal of the passage? How can statistics help us to understand the goal? How many times is the name of God used?

II. Numbers 1-3, 26

A. What statistics do we find here? How many men crossed the desert?

B. What were the criteria to be considered a member of God’s people?

C. Why are these statistics mentioned? (Look especially at chs. 1-3 and ch 26)

D. What are the differences between the first census and the second?

III. Nehemiah 6, 7, 11

A. How many days did it take to complete the Jerusalem Wall? Neh. 6:15

B. What is the importance of statistics in this book? Neh. 7, 11

C. Why did Nehemiah keep statistics? Is it useful to know these details today?

IV. Matthew 25:14-30

A. What statistics are given in the Parable of the Talents?

1. Servants? Talents? Multiplication? Evaluation?

2. What do these figures mean? What are the lessons for us?

V. Luke 14:28-33

A. What is the importance of evaluation in the parable of the tower and the king?

B. What is the value of evaluation before implementation of a project?

C. What are the great spiritual truths in these two parables?

VI. Evaluation of Jesus’ work? Success or failure?

A. How many disciples did Jesus choose for ministerial training?

B. How many disciples followed Jesus while He was alive? 1 Cor 15:16

C. How much did the Church grow after Pentecost? Acts 1:15, 2:41; 4:4

D. How many disciples does Jesus have today?

1. In the world?

2. In your country?

3. In your area?

4. In your denomination?

5. In your local church?

I. Reasons for statistics

A. A means of measuring the health of the Church

B. A means of pinpointing growth and decline of the Church

C. A means of determining the necessary treatment for a sick church

1. What does a doctor do when a sick person comes in for care?

a) He takes his temperature, blood pressure, and pulse

b) He measures his height and weight

c) Why does he want these statistics?

D. A means of helping other Church leaders to make valid decisions

II. The Statistician’s Role

A. Do research in gathering the necessary statistical data

B. Help the head of the department of evangelism and the denominational president to analyze and understand their annual reports

C. Overcome certain problems in the local church

1. Gather significant and pertinent statistics

2. Interpret the statistics honestly

3. Explain the statistics for others

4. Propose a treatment for the local churches

III. Advice to the statistician in his role

A. Do your own research to find significant and pertinent statistics.

B. Choose statistics which are appropriate and matter in a given situation.

C. Interpret those statistics to specify the state of the church.

D. Do not misuse statistics to draw false conclusions which are deceiving.

IV. Examples and exercises

B. What is the average number of those attending worship services in this church?

C. What is the average offering per attendant if 150 give a total of $23.00?

V. Signs of the life of the Church pp 6-7